Yankees, Mets, Subway Series

Three Reasons Why the Mets Are In Better Shape For Round Two of the Subway Series

The New York Yankees and New York Mets meet up yet again this season for round two of the infamous Subway Series, this time at Yankee Stadium. In the last matchup between the two teams, it was a split of the two game series, with each team taking one game. Both games were extremely close in scoring as each team only won by one run (Game 1: Mets 7-6, Game 2 Yanks 4-3 F/10). 

The Subway Series has always been highly anticipated, but for some reason it feels like these past two series have been much less talked about. This could be because of a number of different things, but it is most likely because both teams suck. 

The Yankees are sitting at tied last in the AL East (53-47) and seventh in the American League, while the Mets are in fourth place in the NL East (46-53) and eleventh in the National League.

This series is no longer about crowning a winner of the two New York teams, but rather about labeling who is the bigger loser, because no one is winning in NYC right now. 

Of the two teams one must come on top or at least force a split in the upcoming two game series this Tuesday and Wednesday. Without further ado, let's dive into why it can be believed the Mets are the favorite to take home the Subway Series.  

Reason 1: Mets Starting Pitchers

For game one of the Subway Series us fans are going to get a very interesting matchup between the Mets’ Justin Verlander and the Yankees’ Domingo Germán. Verlander who has an ERA of 3.47 is a seasoned veteran and succeeds under the spotlight, whereas Germán, who has an ERA of 4.52 is either a hit or a miss on the night.

One start Germán will throw a no hitter and then the next he will give up eight runs. Germán is too inconsistent to guarantee anything for the Yankees, however, he has the potential to give the Yankees offense room to work with, that’s just if the better Germán is the one who shows up to the mound.

Verlander, on the other hand, has not been as great as he was in Houston, or even close to what he was last year during this season with the Mets. The 2022 CY Young Award winner was one of the key pieces that led the Astros to the World Series, with his 1.75 ERA and 185 strikeouts, stats that only Mets fans wish he brought with him to Citi Field. 

Although Verlander hasn’t shown the best of him this season, he did showcase what he can do in the first Subway Series this season. During that start Verlander pitched for six innings and only allowed three hits, one earned run, zero walks and recorded six strikeouts. He looked as good as he had all season in that start and with him facing a struggling Yankee lineup, only one can imagine what he will be dishing out.

If Verlander puts on a performance similar to that, it won’t matter how good Germán plays (unless he throws a no-hitter again), Verlander can easily keep the Yankees offense cold.

As for game two of the Subway Series, the Yankees’ Carlos Rodón will face off against the Mets’ José Quintana. This matchup can be thrown up in the air with anyone taking the game, as the Mets starter is only making his second start of the year, while the Yankees starter has struggled. 

Rodón, through three starts, has an ERA of 7.36, his second worst of his career (8.22 in 2020). He has given up 12 hits and 12 earned runs while only recording 11 strikeouts through three games. The only word to describe his performances so far this year is disappointing. 

For Quintana on the other hand, he has an ERA of 3.60 and has allowed six hits, two earned runs and recorded three strikeouts in his only game this season. Quintana hasn’t had much game experience this year, but his one appearance is better than any one of the three that Rodón has pitched. 

It can be predicted that Rodón will continue to struggle in this next start and will ultimately give up more hits/runs than Quintana. Unless Rodón can give the Yankees offense some breathing room it isn’t looking good for the Bronx Bombers. 

Reason 2: Mets Take (More) Advantage of At Bats 

Neither the Mets or the Yankees are the league's best offense and neither are that consistent at the plate. In fact, if it wasn’t obvious enough from watching the two teams, both are quite terrible on the offensive side when looking at the statistics compared to the rest of the league.

Team Hits Runs RBI HR Doubles Triples
Mets 26th 20th 17th 11th 30th 11th
Yankees 29th 19th 19th 5th 29th 20th

The Mets, when put up against the Yankees, overall make more of an impact at the plate, barely. However, in a matchup like this even the slightest advantage makes a huge difference, as we saw in the first Subway Series. 

While the Mets have a bit of an upper hand offensively, they still struggle to get even one run in games, being shut out nine times. While the Yankees haven’t been that bad, they have also had their fair share of getting denied, as it has happened four times. 

The two teams are very similar in the sense that when they are hot they are hot and when they are cold they are really really cold. They are both streaky and honestly neither can be counted on to make plays when needed. 

For the Yankees the main reason it can be expected that they will go back to struggling at the plate this series is because of who they are facing on the mound. Verlander is no joke, as the Yankees saw in their last matchup with the Mets. 

For the Mets if Germán deals the good stuff he has it can give the Yankees offense some room, but most likely not enough.

Reason 3: Mets Have Everything to Gain and Nothing to Lose

The Mets have a two game losing streak while the Yankees have won three straight. All the momentum, hype and pressure is on the Yankees to turn the ship around, while most have just accepted the fact that the Mets aren’t going to be a contender this year.

Of course, most would see a team who has been hitting the ball well and bringing in runs as a threat, but the Mets have nothing to lose. This series will not make or break the rest of the year for the Mets, so they can just breathe and play ball. The Yankees on the other hand need to win, they can’t afford to lose games to teams that aren’t above .500 or it will tank their season. 

The Yankees haven’t handled the New York pressure well this year, caving on the spotlight and unable to perform. They have everything to gain and everything to lose in every series they play. This constant attention and expectation has crumbled them out of a Wild Card spot and to the bottom of their division.

There is no other time than now for the Yankees, the only thing that stands in their way is the seemingly carefree Mets. 

Game Times

  • July 25 at 7:05 pm EST on TBS
    • German (NYY) vs Verlander (NYM)
  • July 26 at 7:05 pm EST on ESPN+
    • Rodón (NYY) vs Quintana (NYM)